EUR/USD Analysis – October 3, 2025
Trend: Upward
Support/Resistance: 1.1680 – 1.1795
The first Friday of every month is traditionally one of the most volatile sessions before the New York market opens, as traders await the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) and Unemployment Rate (Sep).
These reports are expected to drive the largest moves on Friday. Market consensus points to a modest increase of 50K new jobs in September, compared with just 22K in August, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3%.
Friday, October 3, will be eventful despite German banks being closed for the Day of German Unity. From the European side, the key highlight will be ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech at 12:40 GMT.
In the U.S., aside from NFP and unemployment data, we will also watch:
- ISM Services PMI (Sep) – expected to soften slightly compared to last month.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) at 12:00 GMT.
- Average Hourly Earnings – no major changes are anticipated.
Additionally, China’s markets will be closed for National Day, reducing Asian liquidity.
Trading Strategy
Our bias for tomorrow leans toward a weaker U.S. dollar, primarily due to expectations of disappointing labor market data. This could trigger sharp short-term volatility (traders should be cautious with stop-loss placements).
Overall, we anticipate EUR/USD to test 1.1800, and possibly break above this level intraday. However, if the pair rallies toward 1.18+ ahead of the NFP release, a partial dollar recovery may follow later in the U.S. session.
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